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Should History Repeat, Bitcoin Could See $20,000 By Year's End

Since our previous report on the market, Bitcoin (BTC) has been able to see some short-term reprieve. As of the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is pretty much flat over the past 24 hours, posting no notable gains or losses to speak of.

Altcoins are actually outpacing Bitcoin today, with Ethereum, XRP, and most other large caps gaining 3% or so. With this, Bitcoin dominance has returned to 65% according to CoinMarketCap, which is only marginally lower than the 65.8% seen just yesterday.

Anyhow, what’s next for Bitcoin? According to Crypto (Parabolic) Thies, a certain turn of events could see surge to $20,000 by the end of the third quarter of this year.

$BTC Jan 2016 –> 3M KDJ cross after a 2-3x run-up. Price was $430. Small neutral candle then leads to subsequent 100%+ gain following period July 2019 –> 3M KDJ cross after 3-4x run-up. Price is $11k. Candle looks similar now but will keep eye on it. pic.twitter.com/I5XTQrw6GO

The analyst at trade publication CryptoSlate notes that in January 2016, which is when BTC began to recover from 2015’s brutal downturn, Bitcoin saw a three-month KDJ cross after rallying by two to three times.

For those unaware, the KDJ is a “technical indicator used to analyze and predict changes in stock trends and price patterns”. It is purportedly also known as the “random index”, in that it seemingly moves without any rhyme or reason.

Anyhow, after the KDJ cross, BTC saw a flat neutral candle (meaning no large gains or losses), then a surge of over 100% in the quarter that followed. This is effectively what kicked off the previous bull run.

Thies notes that since the KDJ crossed on the three-month chart, he would be inclined to suggest that Bitcoin could see a similar turn of events play out if the following quarter ends relatively neutral. Such a “neutral” candle could likely be seen if BTC manages to end the third quarter (September) anywhere from $10,000 to $13,000.

Thies isn’t the only analyst that has pointed out that should historical trends hold true, Bitcoin could recover strongly into the end of 2019.

Timothy Peterson, a Texas-based crypto fund manager and Bitcoin pioneer, recently laid out a model which plots how BTC’s performance in the first half of any given year relates to the second half’s performance.

Interestingly, the model, which can be defined as the positive slope y = 1.1409x + 0.5151, fits the trend to 90%, implying that it should be fairly accurate.

Wow! Just did a quick look at $BTC momentum 1st 6 mos vs. 2nd 6 mos. 180% YTD means another +250% (give or take) over the next 6 months for #bitcoin. Anything substantially less would be a true anomaly. $50k entirely realistic under this model. I'm shocked. pic.twitter.com/xUqDHFy9Wi

According to Peterson, Bitcoin gaining 180% year-to-date (effectively the 2019’s first half) implies that it has another 250% (“give or take”) left to run by the end of the year.

A 250% gain from current levels would mean Bitcoin ends the year at $40,000 — practically double BTC’s 2017 all-time high of just around $20,000. According to Peterson, even $50,000 is realistic.

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