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Bitcoin in the Chop But Steady Amid Libra Chaos: Long Term Price Analysis

cryptoglobe

1mon ago

This Market Analysis is brought to you by OKEx, for more insights visit their blog.

The crypto markets are now almost undeniably bullish. Of late, a distinction is often heard on crypto social media between a bull run and a bull market (however defined). We have had a run from the lows, with both Bitcoin and the overall market capitalization doing a 3x.

Not only this, but the gains have so far been staunchly defended. Prediction after prediction on social media - and from this analyst - of a deep Bitcoin correction have not come to fruition, with the leading crypto being defended multiple times at $7,500. $9,400 has been reached, and $10,000 seems easily attainable.

You can’t argue with the charts. A long term uptrend has been laid; and excepting short- to medium-term oscillations, it will take a lot of selling to point the indicators back down. The days when we worried about $4,200, or even $6,400 seem behind us.

Bitcoin may still correct, ending the impressive little bull run we’ve just had - but in the long term, Bitcoin and the crypto markets in general look very strong.

Looking at our first crypto, OKEx’s exchange token (OKB), we’ll note slow but steady uptrending strength on the OKB/BTC chart that suggest larger moves up in the future.

OKB’s daily chart, below, does not look significantly different than many other altcoins’ charts at this time. While having a good Q1, the crypto look many others took hard hit in early April when Bitcoin first broke out of its bear market structure; and then another punch to the face in early May when Bitcoin decided that $6,000 was too low.

(source: Charts.cointrader.pro)

The area around ₿0.00027 marks the upper level of OKB’s market structure, and there is little market history before that mark to stop OKB’s rise - meaning that a solid uptrend should easily slice up to that critical mark.

(source: Charts.cointrader.pro)

Rising strength on the daily RSI suggests accumulation during these tiny market cycles, and we might easily expect OKB to ride strong fundamentals up to higher prices in the coming months, if Bitcoin gives the altcoin markets some space to breath (see Bitcoin analysis below).

(source: Charts.cointrader.pro)

If we look on OKB’s daily chart versus USD, we see the effect of Bitcoin’s price inflation on altcoins. OKB here has held up well even during Bitcoin’s rise. What’s more, we can note the presence of a bullish-looking rising triangle pattern. Although another cycle down seems probably, we can easily imagine this token breaking out and up sometime during the summer months.

On the fundamental side, the OKB token has had some positive news items recently that may give the price a boon. The token was recently listed for trading on the very popular and prominent Bitfinex exchange. Furthermore, OKB is still an Ethereum ERC-20 token, but is slated to transition to its own proprietary chain - OKChain - in July (only slightly delayed).

Developments in OKB’s tokenomics may help it along further, too. An OKEx representative recently confirmed to CryptoGlobe that the release of 700 million OKB tokens, in addition to the 300 million already in circulation, would be postponed from 2020 to 2022.

Finally, OKB’s buy-back and burn program is going ahead full steam, with the exchange using 30% of trading fees from the spot exchange to buy-back OKB tokens once every three months. This puts OKB in direct competition with other exchanges’ burn programs.

Bitcoin (BTC) turned over an important milestone in its price history this week, and could well be solidified against a deep retracement anywhere into the price range between $8,000-6,000.

Looking at the weekly chart, we see that an important counter-trend to the downside has been soundly invalidated at present. Namely, we see that the downward price action following the scary doji reversal candle from late May, which sent Bitcoin down to about $7,500 the following week, has been completely reversed. All of the losses were retaken last week, and price closed well above the prior week’s opening at $8,736 (Coinbase chart).

(source: TradingView.com)

We can take this as a very strong statement from Bitcoin bulls, who refused to allow a broad change in trend. Many analysts had been clamoring for a healthy retrace in price after Bitcoin’s remarkable bull run since February. And although such retraces after strong moves up are in general healthy for laying the groundwork for further moves up, another way to let indicators cool off is for price to go sideways for a while. This may be what we are getting.

Looking at the Bitcoin daily, we see that the range between $9,400-8,800 seems to be the crypto’s current home. Price action in past days has been choppy within this zone, and medium term trend will not really be clear until price breaks definitely through one of those levels.

(source: TradingView.com)

We can see that Bitcoin has another level down to go with ample safety, if it wants to correct a bit. The zone just above $8,200 would probably hold, and still be a higher low on the daily chart - preserving the medium term uptrend entirely. Break this level to the downside, however, would be serious, as we would begin eyeing $7,600 for serious support to step in and - like last month - prevent a full change in medium term trend.

Looking at the daily indicators, it seems possible that we might get that small correction, if price does not break hard to $10,000 soon. Both the common RSI and Histogram indicators are showing divergences to the downside - higher price mapped onto lower strength.

(source: TradingView.com)

But again, BTC could easily run to the significant $10,000 mark at any time, and these divergences would be broken.

If we move to the Bitcoin dominance chart, we see a divergence of a different sort. Bitcoin has been the obvious star of the crypto show for the last two months. But during the latest pushes up, we can see that Bitcoin’s market share is generally falling versus altcoins - even as price has continued to rise.

(source: TradingView.com)

This divergence suggests that people are starting to buy the altcoin bottoms and dips. This is in fact a positive sign, as it shows more risk-taking and thus confidence in the markets (Bitcoin is the safest investment). We will see below that major altcoins Litecoin and Ethereum have fallen in the shadow of Bitcoin’s rise, and present decent investment opportunities.

Litecoin (LTC) is looking good on both LTC/USD and LTC/BTC charts, breaking out of a lengthy consolidation trend. Those consolidations came on the back of a very strong showing out of the leading altcoin - indeed, Litecoin led the crypto markets out of the dreaded “crypto winter.” The much deserved breather, however, seems to be giving way to more gains.

Looking at the LTC/USD chart (4 hour), we can see Litecoin has broken out and retested the $136 mark in textbook fashion. This is not to say that another surprise Bitcoin run couldn’t send Litecoin hurtling back down into the pattern - it happened with Ethereum recently (see below) - but things look good for a resumption of the medium- to long-term uptrend.

(source: TradingView.com)

The LTC/BTC chart tells a similar story, with a similar consolidation leading into a similar breakout. Volume attending the breakout on this side of Litecoin looks even better, as traders jump out of what may be the top of the recent Bitcoin uptrend.

(source: TradingView.com)

Ethereum has been less clear of late, being rangebound since the middle of May on the USD chart. Indeed, just looking at this chart (daily, below), we might not know what to expect - other than the fact that the pattern resembles a very large bull flag.

(source: TradingView.com)

But looking at the ETH/BTC chart, below, we get more information regarding what’s been happening in the past month.

After rejecting a breakout of a lengthy consolidation (due to, of course, yet another Bitcoin breakout), Ethereum alarmingly fell back into, and then right through its consolidation pattern - only to be caught on thick historical support.

(source: TradingView.com)

Now, this trend seems to be clearly reversing and curling back up. A new trend could lead us, in the next couple of weeks, past the previous trendlines and up - turning the ETH/USD bull flag into a breakout of its own. This latter event, of course, depends on Bitcoin playing nice and not being too volatile.

As noted above in the Bitcoin section, BTC dominance has been falling even with rising price. This bodes well for altcoins, and suggests that their time is coming. The Ethereum and (especially) Litecoin charts certainly show plenty of potential.

The views and opinions expressed here do not reflect those of CryptoGlobe.com and do not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.

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